Climate‐Change Controls on River Delta Avulsion Location and Frequency

Coastal rivers that build deltas undergo repeated avulsion events—that is, abrupt changes in river course—which we need to understand predict land building and flood hazards coastal landscapes. Climate change can impact water discharge, frequency, sediment supply, sea level, all of which could location frequency. Here present results from quasi-2D morphodynamic simulations delta-lobe construction explore how frequency are affected by relative regime. Model indicate sea-level rise drives more frequent avulsions occur at a distance the shoreline set backwater hydrodynamics. Reducing supply transport capacity has little on deltaic avulsions, because, despite incision upstream trunk channel, still aggrade as result progradation. However, increasing shift zone because aggradation channel outpaces progradation-induced delta aggradation. Increasing overbank floods causes less scour riverbed within zone, slowing net rates. Results provide framework assess downstream controls patterns over glacial-interglacial cycles, use anthropogenic climate deltas.